Great trade! It reminds me of something Victor Sperandeo said in his first book. He said, "Gambling is taking a risk when the odds are not in your favor. Speculation is taking a risk when odds are in your favor." You waited for a great setup. You ...

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This is the major issue: no central banks wants to be hawkish right now.

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Great read on Draghi. [/quote]

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I completely agree. After the initial spike from the employment numbers, CAD's price action wasn't what I expected. We haven't even mentioned the fact that oil hit $70. I think that my natural instincts are to think about the market from an ...

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Fader, this was such a great post. You are consistently methodical in your approach, process, and analysis. I am working on getting there.

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synicz, in three months, I think the probabilities right now are higher that the dollar will be lower in 3 months. I laid out my arguments about the dollar in 2018 a few pages ago. Check out my posts. However, I don't have the conviction to enter a ...

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This is definitely true. The importance of the Chinese bond buying shift did not stick out to me like it should have. I think I need to get back to posting here more, too. However, I might sound like a broken record: I still don't get why the dollar ...

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Double post

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Happy New Year! Over the last few days, I have been reading the 2017 Year in Review articles on BabyPips for each currency. Good stuff. Here is a link to the first article in the series: url

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This is an incredibly important reminder for me. I need to look at this everyday. Forming biases might be my worst weakness. I vaguely remember Trump's warning. It happened just as I was getting back into the markets. I definitely didn't understand ...

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As I prepare for 2018, I need to understand what happened in 2017? Question # 1: Are we in the beginning of a multi-year bear USD market? The state of US economy is strong: 1) 4 hikes in the last 13 months (including the expected hike this week); 2) ...

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Nice trade. I might have to get Ransquawk. I am trying to use foreclose for updates on the numbers, but they are too slow. In their 1st post about NFP, they only gave the latest reading. Unfortunately, you need more info to enter a trade. Sometimes ...

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Great analysis! You are very meticulous, and consistent in your preparation.

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I haven't sold the Aussie. I thought the statement was consistent with what the RBA has been saying for the last few months. Did you see a shift in policy or expectations that I missed? The RBA statement did re-affirm my belief that AUD is the ...

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I did not. Why did the pound sell off? Buy the rumor; sell the fact?

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Thanks for posting this. It is an interesting article. As I kept reading, the article right below it offered a different scenario: url I think the key is that we will have to pay attention to whether or not the tax bill affects dollar repatriation ...

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I hope your UJ trade has turned around. I am going to write a longer post about this in a few days, but I don't know if there are any dollar bulls left. No news seems to move the dollar up for long. On the year, the dollar is flat or losing ground ...

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Short Aussie is the one trade that I am in now. I made good pips on the NZD Winston trade, but I managed it too tightly. Please share your thoughts are on the Aussie. It's a slow trading day The RBA is really trying to drive AUD down right ...

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How are things going with you? Are you having an undefeated November? By the way, I forgot to say, "Thank you." Your insights, wisdom, and viewpoints have been invaluable.

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Things are going well. In fact, perhaps, better than expected. When I began following the markets again in June after a 5-year absence, I committed to staying on demo until 2018. I have spent a ton of time studying and researching in hopes of ...

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