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- youalreadykn replied Feb 29, 2008
I heard banks will soon need to post $30B of collateral just to cover the widening spreads of the CDS market. They are stuck between paying a ton now or risking a default where they will have to pay even more later.
- youalreadykn replied Feb 29, 2008
Update as of this morning.... the bears are back. I still expect 12000-12800 to be the range for the month, but we could see a breakout on any horrible news. I just don't see anything moving this market to completely selloff until we really find out ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 26, 2008
If there is ANY major default, there is no restructuring and no write-down to control the fallout because there will be money owed and paid. I'm not saying there will definitely be a default, but even with the current "bailouts" the odds are ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 26, 2008
For every piece of good news these days, there are 10 pieces of bad news released alongside it. Anyone can find glimpses of good in a situation, but the only good is on a case by case basis and that does little for the entire economy. IBM ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 26, 2008
Huge day today... makes one wonder if the Fed's panic cuts were actually enough to keep equities from crashing. An important resistance level was broken around 12600 and now an even more important resistance level sits at 12800. If we break 12800, ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 25, 2008
Wheat went up over 8% today and I've seen a consistent bid size over 10,000 contracts since this morning when it was only up 4%. Either someone badly wants to lock in current prices or they know that supply/demand is about to get even more screwed ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 25, 2008
This is it. Tomorrow is the key technical day to decide whether the bulls or bears are in control. If bears retake control, we may not see 12500 again in the near future.
- youalreadykn replied Feb 24, 2008
If we get there, and that's a big IF with the data being released this week. Anyone with estimates on the bottom of this bear market for the Dow? My first number is ~10000 if the bear market ends this year, but if it breaks that and holds into 2009 ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 24, 2008
I'd argue the opposite. We're in a bear market, so sell the rallies and thus going short around 12500-12545 is the better move with the trade being closed out with a sustained break over 12600. The overall structure still remains bearish for me ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 20, 2008
Amen. Too bad I sold the wrong rally and had to get out of my trade early.
- youalreadykn replied Feb 20, 2008
Gotta love when the Fed announces we're facing stagflation and the market's rally. There are some counter-intuitive rallies that have at least a hint of a reasonable explanation, but this one is just absurd. GBP down, inflation up, oil settling over ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 17, 2008
Not sure about other countries, but the US equity markets are heavily regulated by NASD/SEC. The basic summary is that you cannot manage more than 15 client accounts without proper licensing and having all clients qualify by having a net worth of ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 14, 2008
I thought we were in a wave 5, but we could also be in a wave 3 to the upside. That's why I marked 12550 and 12800 as the key points on the chart. The market reacted exactly how I thought it would around 12550 and sold off and now we'll either get ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 13, 2008
Update as of 2/13.... ~12550 is the next key level for tomorrow. Any close below there and I'll seriously consider going short. 12805-12810 determines whether we're in a true bull mode or not. Personally, I expect us to range between 12000-12800 for ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 7, 2008
The only way a counter-trend trader is successful is by identifying a larger/smaller time frame trend or the beginning of a new trend. Thus a counter-trend trader is by nature a trend trader, so the only existence of a true counter-trend trader is ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 7, 2008
Broke out of it's trading range to the downside. It tested the 61.8 Fib today (1.6125-1.6130) and failed to break through, but it was already down 200 pips on the day so a break was expected. Beyond 1.6125 opens up a HUGE downside to 1.55 on my ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 7, 2008
If we see 217.45 anytime in the near future before equities reach new lows and/or VIX goes past 35, I'll be drooling at the thought of shorts. Can't wait to see what happens, but I'm not expecting JPY pairs to rise that high soon since it would have ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 7, 2008
ECB has held lower rates than BOE and the Fed, so they can afford to maintain the stance against inflation instead of against economic slowdown. I heard somewhere today that there is a growing market expectation for 100bps to come off the EUR ...
- youalreadykn replied Feb 7, 2008
Quote of the day.
- youalreadykn replied Feb 7, 2008
Better yet, volatility is so scary that we have a 170 point head and shoulder formation and VIX actually dropped by over a full point. Just shows that if we do have the blowoff top to VIX that everyone expects, it will truly be a market crash (i.e. ...