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- VedantaTrade replied May 26, 2011
Man this is gobbledygook. If you have read this in a newspaper about savings growing faster than credit as being a good thing, then they are spinning it for you. The reason credit will be slowing, and going into contraction is that now house prices ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 23, 2011
Read back on a few of my posts in this thread. Those expectations are mis-priced regarding interest rates. Lasty seems the only other negative poster one on the AUD. I took a lot of confidence in being short the AUD that nearly everyone in this ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 20, 2011
Ah yes, but the printing of money is potentially inflationary, which should be negative for bond yields. Remember the central bank cannot create money, they can only create reserves. It is the role of the commercial banks to create money, and a ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 19, 2011
Thanks for the reply. I think we are probably in broad agreement. And I guess it all comes down to time frame. Yes Pimco sold at the most recent yield high on their bonds, so old Bills timing wasn't great with that one, but he is a billionaire and ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 19, 2011
Pipstrumph, printing money should be leading to higher yields not lower, so why is it not? Japan has printed plenty of money, people have called a bond bubble in Japan for 10 years now, people have been consistently burnt shorting Japanese long ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 18, 2011
Mike, but that was 2 cycles ago. If you look at commodity pricing over the last 200-300 years, the cycles generally last 14-26 years. The end of the last secular up swing in commodities ended around the 1979-1982 years. This bull began around 2000. ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 18, 2011
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703421204576330442266266076.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us_business Australian Banks downgraded by Moody. I m surprised they are this early, they are usually late to the party, or end of the party. However, ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 17, 2011
Just a correction...? That housing was a basic need are all the same arguments that were made in Ireland, the UK, Japan, the US, Sweden in the nineties, Finland etc etc. It didnt stop a 50% drop in these places in real terms. The attached chart ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 17, 2011
Is anyone who is bullish on the AUD seeing what is actually happening there. Listening to central bankers is one way to go broke. The house price bubble has now burst. We are hearing all the arguments from estate agents trying to justify that it is ...
- VedantaTrade replied May 1, 2011
I have to totally disagree. Interest rate expectations are what I would say being mis-priced by the markets at this time. Those charts show what is already priced in. I think you ll find in the not too distant future that when the bursting of the ...
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 20, 2011
Thanks, I ll check it out later. Looks good.
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 20, 2011
Hey, we would have no market without disagreement I m quite bullish on the AUD on a secular basis, but not for the next 6-18 months. All your points are very valid, and I agree with them all regarding the USD debt situation. This is a concept I ...
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 20, 2011
lol, Great Keiser quote. In relation to the USD reserve status, I have heard a lot about this lately. However, upon some examination these are the same arguments made back in the first half of 2008. If you look at google trends and type in "USD ...
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 20, 2011
Hey Quart, thanks for explaining your target levels. Its strange I was playing around with a similar method a while back. I would take 3 period moving average of the median price, or half way between the high and low, and add the ATR above and ...
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 20, 2011
But one thing you are forgetting is the other side of the coin. China has been increasing money and credit at nearly 30% a year. There is a huge real estate bubble, residential and commercial in China. There are already signs that it is bursting. ...
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 20, 2011
Hey Quart, what is your reasoning for this level? I m very bearish from a fundamental view on the AUD, but of course this cannot be used for a timing method, unless your a large institution or a large trader who doesn't mind being down while they ...
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 19, 2011
Just looking at the retail trading positions for this pair. 76% are net long the USD with only 24% long the CHF. That usually points to more losses. This is from Oanda's book and apparently Oanda have the most winning traders of all the retail ...
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 18, 2011
Absolutely. I think it is almost a certainty that interest rates will decrease in AUD. The double whammy of a huge housing bubble in both China and Australia will not be pretty for the AUD. China is responsible for 30% of AUD exports, and most of ...
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 18, 2011
About time for the AUD if so. It has been a Teflon currency of late. I think it will get down to sub 80 level again. Thats what I m holding for anyway. I like the USD at this juncture.
- VedantaTrade replied Apr 18, 2011
United States downgraded to negative credit rating by S+P. If the USD ends up after this, then that is a sign of sea change in sentiment. Market rising on bad news. Greek two year money has hit 20%!!! Spain is the next worry. Interesting times. ...