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Heading into Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, short-term interest rate markets expect no change from the current level of 5.375%. So, the question is going to be if the Fed changes its forward rate guidance. Remember, we will get dot plot ...
Gold prices are in a major focus right now ahead of the US CPI print due to be released on Wednesday at 1:30 UK time. Gold is extremely sensitive to US interest rate expectations and dollar moves. This has meant that gold prices are being pushed and ...
Gold price movements are heavily influenced by the path of the US dollar and the movement of US Treasuries. The movement of both the US dollar and Treasuries is dependent on the path of US interest rates. If markets perceive a coming increase in ...
Many analysts have been expecting oil markets to tighten in the second half of 2023. Now that narrative failed to lift oil markets in the first half of this year, but will oil markets start to rise again? Hopes of stimulus in China and a stronger US ...
One of the most important principles of FX trading is pairing a weak currency with a strong currency. The reason for doing this is to increase the probability of the future direction of the currency pair. In the case of the pound, we have seen ...
A string of recent US data points has led to a bid coming back into US Treasuries. The US jolts jobs missed, and US confidence missed the last PMI print in the middle of August. These data points, and others, have led to dollar weakness and a fall ...
It’s hard to think the US is heading into a recession when the jobs market is so strong. That’s been the Federal Reserve’s problem, so it has constantly stressed the labour market as being a major indicator for the pace and path of its interest rate ...
The case for buying gold has been increasing over the last couple of weeks due to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to stop hiking interest rates as US economic activity shows signs of slowing down. The main economic data ...
On Wednesday, we have the Australian monthly CPI indicator. This is expected to come in at 5.1% down from the prior reading of 5.4%. The way that inflation readings are understood by the markets is that high inflation readings will mean interest ...
What’s gold next catalyst going to be? Any indication of a change in US monetary policy will be a major potential catalyst for gold. On Friday, Jerome Powell will speak, and markets will be looking for clues as to where he sees US monetary policy ...
One of the helpful functions that Seasonax provides is the ability to quickly search through thousands of different instruments in a few seconds. By choosing your market, the start date, and the examination period you can quickly sort through the ...
The key to understanding FX moves is to have a firm grasp of monetary policy as communicated by central banks. The EURGBP is being pressured lower by GBP strength at the time of writing. The GBP Is strengthening on rising inflation pressures ...
The USDJPY pair has been moving higher in sympathy with US yields rising on lingering inflation fears. The narrative over the first half of August has been that the Fed will likely have to keep rates higher for longer. This is underpinning the ...
Prospect Theory is a behavioral economic theory developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the 1970s. It is explained in the Chartered Market Technicians curriculum for level 2. The theory aims to explain how individuals make decisions under ...
Platinum prices tend to gain around the start of the year on industrial demand purchases that take place at the start of the year. However, platinum has a weak seasonal period in the summer that is also pronounced. Over the last 15 years, platinum ...
Many analysts have been expecting oil markets to tighten in the second half of 2023. That narrative failed to lift oil markets in the first half of this year, but will oil markets start to rise again? Hopes of stimulus in China and a stronger US GDP ...
The JPY is once again in focus this week as Japanese inflation data is to be released early Friday morning. So, with Governor Ueda disappointing JPY bulls this week by saying that the BoJ was still away from sustainably achieving the 2% inflation ...
Just under three-quarters of all US economic activity comes from consumer spending. US retail sales data contains evidence of around one-third of that activity. So, this print can give a big hint at the overall state of the economy. However, the ...
In the previous meeting, the RBNZ signalled that it had reached the end of its hiking cycle. It added more ‘staying’ weight to that picture by saying that interest rates will need to remain restrictive for the foreseeable future. A hold, for now, is ...
The US CPI print on Wednesday at 13:30 UK time sits in a light calendar week for US data. The CPI print is likely to draw significant attention tomorrow to see how the US is doing in its fight against inflation. Over the last year, headline ...