This time is different. This is what the experts say. The inversion of the yield curve did a great job in predicting recessions in the past, but the current inversion is not like the previous. The predictive power of the yield curve has weakened, so it does not signal the recession. This is what the pundits claim. Are they right? First of all, many doubt whether we can really trust the signals sent by the yield curve, given that the central banks heavily intervened in the bond markets in the aftermath of the Great Recession. When the short-term interest rates reached almost zero, the Fed started to buy many ... (full story)