OK, well that was kind of a crazy day. Equities gave up yesterday’s gains and then some as bond yields dropped. The 30 year bond yield hit a record low and the 10s2s spread slightly inverted, stoking fears of recession. In my opinion we should be reasonably concerned about the outlook as recession risks have risen but recognize that a.) the time between yield curve inversion and and recession could be long and b.) the Fed has been and will continue to be more dovish in the wake of the inversion than they have been in the past. On the other hand, the risk of continued chaotic policy out of the White House is high and ... (full story)