Talks between Presidents Trump and Xi on the sidelines of the recent G20 meeting went as well as we could realistically have hoped. Trade negotiations are restarting, there are no additional new tariffs and the Huawei issue has been de-escalated to a certain extent. The uncertainty caused by these prolonged global trade tensions is weighing on US sentiment and activity, most notably in the manufacturing sector. While industrial production in aggregate is up, this is primarily a mining and utilities story. Manufacturing output has actually fallen 1.5% since last December with the majority of sub-sectors experiencing ... (full story)