Despite the somewhat better than expected data for the first quarter, in part due to temporary factors, the most recent information indicates that global headwinds continue to weigh on the euro area outlook. In particular, world trade remains subdued due to rising trade tensions and the global growth momentum has slowed somewhat, mainly on account of the weakness in manufacturing. Moreover, downside risks have increased on account of the re-escalated trade dispute between the US and China. Also, uncertainty surrounding Brexit is prolonged and fragilities in emerging market economies remain. While inflation is ... (full story)