This is an unusual time for markets, with a reasonable debate for both sides on whether the next move by central banks will be to hike or cut interest rates. Certainly, markets are leaning to at least one hike by the Fed and perhaps half of one by the Bank of Canada by the end of 2026, but there’s not much conviction. All it would take to wash away those hawkish views could be a serious crack in energy prices, and/or the equity market. On the flip side, of course, is that all it would take to ratify those views would be a renewed ratcheting up in fuel costs, perhaps alongside ongoing strength in equity markets. ... (full story)