Thank you for the kind introduction. I am delighted to be here at Stanford University today to discuss a topic that is central to the Federal Reserve's work: how policymakers analyze and respond to economic shocks in real time. The economy is constantly experiencing shocks that change economic conditions and that policymakers must consider. Today, I will focus on shocks that are extremely difficult—if not impossible—to predict, such as the emergence of a pandemic, the start of a war, or a sudden breakthrough in technological advancement. When such shocks occur, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) evaluates them ... (full story)

Jefferson's remarks place him firmly in the Fed's centrist camp rather than alongside hawks like Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who has already floated the case for a hike. Markets had largely priced out a July move after this week's softer CPI print, and Jefferson's preference to hold for now while leaving the door open to a hike reinforces that near-term path. What stands out is the weighting of his remarks toward inflation risk over labor market concerns, and his explicit framing of AI as a potential upside inflation risk if investment and consumption effects arrive before productivity gains, a nuance likely ... (full story)