In the 3D game of chess we call the world, China is winning right now. I’m a China “hawk” for a number of reasons. For one thing, China has consistently played the role of global destabilizer since Russia’s Ukraine invasion in 2022. It’s only thanks to how much it’s ramped up its exports that Putin’s war economy hasn’t completely imploded. This is also why I’ve been pushing back on the silly market narrative that China acted to cap global oil prices in recent months. That misreads trade data - China imported less because it has a large stockpile it could draw on, just like Japan and South Korea - but, more ... (full story)