The US 10yr yield breached above 4.6% on Monday, driven there by yet another nudge higher in real yields. But in addition, break-even inflation rates too have been on a renewed rising trend in the past week. The latter coincides with the re-elevation of tensions between the US and Iran, manifesting in a concerning kinetic element. We're not quite in a state of all-out war, but the direction of travel has been more towards that, rather than a ratcheting down. And there is also the unravelling for the markets of the 20% tolls being contemplated by the US for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and how that might pan ... (full story)