One of the remarkable things about the US economy is how stable it has been over the last 4 years. I know it doesn’t feel that way sometimes – most of the time? – but from an aggregate viewpoint, that is the reality. We can see this stability in a variety of economic reports as well as in the markets. Interest are up this year across the yield curve but they are all still basically in the ranges they’ve established over the last 3 to 4 years. The dollar is up this year but is still in the bottom end of the range it has been in since late 2022. The 3 month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index is ... (full story)