The FOMC next meets on July 28-29 with no change in policy rates expected for the fifth consecutive confab (fed funds target range at 3.50%-to-3.75%). We believe this stretch could last deep into next year, with inflation and growth dynamics arguing for maintaining current policy. Following five straight years of topping the 2% target, the PCE price index was up 4.1% y/y in May, pumped by higher oil prices. But excluding energy and food, the core index was still up 3.4% with core services excluding rents up 3.9%. The trimmed mean measure was more benign at 2.6% but is still a bit too high with the median index at ... (full story)