The manager turned first to an overview of market developments during the intermeeting period. Asset prices were affected by a number of factors, including developments related to the conflict in the Middle East, continued solid real economic data, higher inflation data, and ongoing investment in artificial intelligence (AI). Optimism around a near-term resolution of the conflict in the Middle East and the announcement of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran pushed the oil futures curve and near-term inflation compensation materially lower relative to levels from the time of the April FOMC meeting. ... (full story)

Today's FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for further insight into policymakers' appetite for additional rate hikes and the thinking behind the Committee's hawkish shift at last month's meeting. The minutes are an account of the June 17th meeting and therefore will not reflect subsequent developments, including the softer-than-expected June nonfarm payrolls report or Chair Warsh's appearance at the ECB's Sintra Forum. Since the last FOMC meeting (June 17th), the dollar has strengthened (on the hawkishness) and gold (and bitcoin) mirrored that with sizable declines. Stocks are flat, bond yields are higher (prices ... (full story)