It is a very close call whether the Fed will hike rates this year, but on balance, we think it will instead choose to look through a near-term energy spike and hold rates steady for an extended period. The low-hire, low-fire economy means weak wage growth, with real household disposable income having fallen for three consecutive months. Consequently, elevated energy costs risk demand destruction that should help to dampen core inflation in time. Consumer and market inflation expectations remain in tolerable ranges, and slowing housing rents, weak wage growth, a waning influence from tariffs and energy price falls ... (full story)