Oil prices have fallen back to where they were before the war. That in and of itself is remarkable - we’ve blown right through the $80-90 range I’d anticipated as a holding point for at least a few weeks - and stems from the incredibly rapid normalization of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Factoring in Saudi and UAE pipelines, supply of oil out of the Persian Gulf is almost back to where it was before the war, so it’s fair to say this supply shock is close to over. You’d think that - with the rapid return of oil prices to pre-war levels - other markets would return to the status quo ex ante as well, ... (full story)