The textbook rule says gold (XAU/USD) rises when real yields fall — and over the past two years that rule has been wrong. Gold ran to a record near $5,595/oz in January 2026 even as US real yields stayed high and the dollar strengthened, because the marginal buyer stopped being the Western macro fund and became the central bank. That is why any honest gold (XAU) price prediction for 2026, 2028 and 2030 cannot lean on the old Fed-and-real-yields playbook. The decisive variable now is whether the central-bank and de-dollarisation bid that decoupled gold from real rates keeps buying — and the early-2026 data shows that ... (full story)