Markets enter July with a ceasefire that nobody quite trusts. The 60-day de-escalation between Washington and Tehran has done its job on paper, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased markedly. Oil has responded accordingly, with August WTI down more than 30% from its May 18 peak of over $100 a barrel. It reached around $69 compared with a little below $66 before the war began. Gasoline prices are easing slower, but the direction is clear. In addition to the drop in oil prices, the other major force shaping the investment climate as we enter the second half is the sharp decline in equities, especially ... (full story)