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NZ: Pre-war GDP stronger than believed
The key data point in today’s national accounts release was the annual growth in GDP. At 1.5% it was 0.3% higher than the RBNZ had pencilled in and 0.4/0.5% above the consensus. The quarterly outturn of 0.8% was indifferent to expectations but, as we had warned, revisions to historical data would be the key to understanding the economy’s progress. What all this means is that the economy was on a firmer footing going into the war than the RBNZ was expecting. Does this really matter? No. It’s where to from here that will determine monetary policy outcomes. At the very margin it provides no reason for the doves to ... (full story)