China’s export engine remains remarkably powerful. The country ended 2025 with the world’s largest-ever merchandise-trade surplus—US$1.2 trillion—underscoring its enduring industrial competitiveness. But that money is not going where it used to go. To be sure, that $1.2 trillion figure, which comes from customs data, is somewhat misleading. The balance of payments (BoP)—which records transactions between residents and non-residents of a country—shows a slightly smaller surplus of around $1.1 trillion. The money available for recycling is smaller still. While China boasts a huge surplus in trade in goods, it runs a ... (full story)