F.B.I. Arrests C.I.A. Official With $40 Million in Gold Bars in His Home

Total new capital expenditure rose by 6.5% • Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 18.1% • Buildings and structures fell by 3.8% • Estimate 2 for 2026-27 is $173.4b. This is 9.9% ...

Fed's Jefferson says monetary policy is well positioned to respond, not prejudge June meet Jefferson: Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy Good morning. It is an honor to be here at the Bank of Japan, and I appreciate the opportunity to speak with you today. I am looking forward to our discussion, but first I want to share some framing thoughts. I will briefly discuss three developments in the global economy that I am monitoring, and then I will update you on my outlook for the U.S. economy and the path of monetary policy. The first global development I am tracking is the significant increase in energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. The rise in crude oil prices poses downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation around the globe. Elevated energy prices are particularly challenging for countries like Japan that are net energy importers. While being a net energy exporter buffers the U.S. to an extent against energy shocks, it is not immune to the effects of disruption to global supply. Gasoline prices in the U.S. increased significantly since the onset of the conflict and remain notably elevated. I am watching whether higher energy prices will start to weigh on consumer spending. The second development is the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. As a central banker, I am optimistic about AI's promise to drive productivity and growth, though I am also monitoring its effects on the labor market and inflation. And the third development is the effects of disrupted trade flows on the global economy. Since the pandemic, there have been multiple disruptions to global trade that have affected both supply and price levels. Against this global backdrop, my focus, of course, is on the U.S. economy. Recent economic growth in FED GOV JEFFERSON/BOJ INSTITUTE: VIEW RISKS TO INFLATION 'TILTED TO THE UPSIDE;' EXPECT INFLATION TO DECLINE LATER THIS YEAR #Jefferson #FederalReserve #economy FED GOV JEFFERSON/BOJ INSTITUTE: WATCHING WHETHER HIGHER ENERGY PRICES WILL START TO WEIGH ON CONSUMER SPENDING #Jefferson #FederalReserve #economy

In the past few years, I have highlighted the increase in productivity growth and the possibility that it could be a lasting phenomenon and a great boon to the economy. The implications for interest rates, though, remain an active area of debate. The economics suggest that the answer depends heavily on whether the productivity growth happens unexpectedly or is anticipated to be coming in the future. Some view the lesson of the 1990s in the United States to be that faster productivity growth can mean lower rates because it lowers inflation. At the time, then-U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan argued that productivity increases had to be behind the aggregate profit, employment, and inflation numbers, even though productivity growth itself had not yet materialized in the data. It was unexpected—and in that circumstance, the fundamentals call for lower rates. But if people expect an increase in productivity coming in the future, it can change their behavior today, making the rate picture more complicated. An increase in expected future income is just like a wealth increase today: It can lead to increased spending and potentially overheat the economy before the productivity boom has actually arrived. In that case, rates would likely need to rise. So it's critical we look out for activity driven by assumptions of future growth: stock market wealth effects on consumer spending, higher capital investment driven by market valuations, and so on. The bigger the hype about future productivity, the more rates may need to rise to prevent overheating. This could affect other countries, too, as the productivity gains or expected gains spread with the new technology across borders. And, importantly, facing a supply shock in the near term—whether from oil prices, disruptions to the supply chain, or other factors—makes the problem worse. Supply shocks reduce potential and limit growth for the economy, but they also make the problem of inflation from anticipated future productivity growth more extreme. According to Fed’s Goolsbee, the more markets expect productivity gains, the more monetary policy may need to tighten.

BREAKING: The Kuwaiti Army has announced that Kuwait is currently under attack from hostile missiles and drones. Local Iranian reports confirm an Iranian ballistic missile launch at Kuwait. Source: @officialrnintel / Geopolitics Watch on TG pic.twitter.com/3wrZ4e6p2f