In two weeks, the European Central Bank will meet again, and a rate hike is starting to look close to a done deal. Back at the last meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde added a touch of conditionality, stressing that higher energy prices showed some indirect effects but definitely no second-round effects yet. The June meeting is expected to focus heavily on how higher energy prices and the war in the Middle East could affect – or are already affecting – inflation and inflation expectations. While ECB staff is busy tying up the last loose ends on a new set of forecasts for the June meeting, we've already had a ... (full story)