European companies double down on China manufacturing despite EU de-risking push

The Monetary Policy Committee today voted to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. Annual consumers price inflation was 3.1 percent in the March quarter. The Middle East conflict is increasing near-term inflation and weakening economic activity. Inflation is expected to peak at 4.3 percent in the September quarter and to return to the 2 percent target mid-point in mid-2027. Currently, core inflation, wage growth, and medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with inflation returning to the 2-percent target mid-point over the medium term. The global economic backdrop remains uncertain. Supply chain disruptions, higher prices for petrochemicals, and a more fragmented global trading environment are impacting the outlook. Growth will vary across countries, reflecting differences in energy intensity, fiscal support, and exposure to AI investment. On balance, New Zealand’s trading partners are expected to see weaker growth and higher inflation. Domestically, business contacts and surveys indicate weaker confidence and spending. For some firms, rising costs are squeezing profit margins and curbing investment and hiring intentions. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply, and the housing market remains weak. Economic conditions continue to differ across regions and sectors, with high commodity prices supporting incomes in regional New Zealand. The Monetary Policy Committee today voted to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25%. • Prior to The Middle East conflict, New Zealand was showing signs of economic recovery. The conflict is increasing near-term inflation and weakening economic activity. • Inflation is… pic.twitter.com/RpKTLT9RHC RBNZ vote was 3-3 to hold with the chair voting to keep policy steady. Market was only 17% priced for a hike today. RBNZ SAYS INTEREST RATES MAY NEED TO INCREASE EARLIER AND MOVE HIGHER THAN OUTLINED IN THE FEBRUARY POLICY OUTLOOK. ... RBNZ Minutes revealed member Carl Hansen argued for an immediate rate hike to preserve flexibility for additional tightening in July.

Annual consumers price inflation was 3.1 percent in the March quarter. The Middle East conflict is increasing near-term inflation and weakening economic activity. Inflation is expected to peak at 4.3 percent in the September quarter and to return to the 2 percent target mid-point in mid2027. Currently, core inflation, wage growth, and medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain consistent with inflation returning to the 2-percent target mid-point over the medium term. The global economic backdrop remains uncertain. Supply chain disruptions, higher prices for petrochemicals, and a more fragmented global trading environment are impacting the outlook. Growth will vary across countries, reflecting differences in energy intensity, fiscal support, and exposure to AI investment. On balance, New Zealand’s trading partners are expected to see weaker growth and higher inflation. Domestically, business contacts and surveys indicate weaker confidence and spending. For some firms, rising costs are squeezing profit margins and curbing investment and hiring intentions. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply, and the housing market remains weak. Economic conditions continue to differ across regions and sectors, with high commodity RBNZ Says headline inflation is projected to climb to 4.3% in Q3 before easing back to the 2% target midpoint by mid-2027. RBNZ SAYS UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO SURROUND THE MEDIUM-TERM INFLATION OUTLOOK. ... RBNZ Says softer demand conditions and higher unemployment should help contain inflation pressures over time. RBNZ SAYS UNDERLYING INFLATION TRENDS, WAGE GAINS, AND LONGER-TERM EXPECTATIONS REMAIN ALIGNED WITH INFLATION EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO TARGET. ...

RBNZ Governor Breman says OCR hikes are expected at upcoming meetings, but decisions will depend on data. ? RBNZ GOV BREMAN: INFLATION OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN, MANY POSSIBLE PATHS FOR RATES FROM HERE RBNZ’s Breman said policymakers agreed on the rate trajectory, with timing being the only point of disagreement. RBNZ Governor Breman signals uncertainty on policy, saying no rate move can be entirely excluded.