Inflation continues to be a problem, of course (we’ve long held the view that inflation would remain sticky with upside risks). But the labor market is stable— importantly—now even outside of health care. Indeed, as we wrote last month, it’s hard to bet against the U.S. economy. We acknowledge, however, that this rosy outlook might seem disconnected from a flurry of difficult headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, coupled with surging energy costs and discouraging consumer confidence data. While it’s clear the U.S. is not currently in a recession, how long can it hold on to the current environment ... (full story)