My aim in this speech is to outline some of the analysis carried out by ECB economists in relation to energy supply shocks. I do not attempt to provide a comprehensive account; rather, I will focus on a selective set of issues. In the final part of the speech, I will discuss the implications for monetary policy. In order to quantify the impact of the current oil price shock on the euro area economy, ECB staff have estimated a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The model includes a series of identified geopolitical oil supply shocks along with the global real price of oil, a global economic activity ... (full story)