The U.S.–Iran conflict has sent shock waves through ener‑ gy markets, resulting in one of the biggest supply shocks to crude oil markets on record. Since the start of the war, the WTI benchmark price has risen by over 40%. Volatil‑ ity also remains elevated as headlines around escalation, ceasefire discussions, and maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz continue to whipsaw market sentiment. While the recently announced U.S.-Iran memorandum of under‑ standing modestly increases the probability of near term de-escalation, markets remain unconvinced that any nor‑ malization of oil supply will be swift. Our updated ... (full story)