Central to our view of how the coming decade will play out is an expectation of persistent supply shocks, which we have written on pretty extensively before, e.g. here and here. The short version is this: Between the early 1980s and the mid 2010s (or perhaps a little earlier), the supply side was incredibly supportive of economic growth, with populations expanding, globalisation (including the integration of China into the global workforce), and relatively few nasty energy shocks. That is, generally all of the supply shocks were positive. This made it quite easy for central banks to manage inflation. With positive ... (full story)