In the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2026, headline HICP inflation expectations were markedly revised upwards from the previous round for 2026 and, to a lesser extent, for 2027, while remaining unchanged for the longer term. Expectations for core inflation, as measured by the HICP excluding energy and food (HICPX), were also revised upwards in the near term.[ 1 ] Headline inflation was expected to increase from 2.1% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026 before declining to 2.1% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 (see Table 1). Longer-term HICP inflation expectations (for 2030) were unchanged at ... (full story)