President Trump's barometer of approval – the stock market – has been flashing 'nothing negative to see here' for the past few weeks. We can't say for sure, but it is quite likely that it has been a factor supporting the US stance to play hard ball. The US may have done that anyway, but risk asset comfort together with a mostly sub-$100/bbl oil price has absolutely helped. President Trump noted flippantly on CNBC earlier this week that he was surprised that equity markets had not collapsed by 20% or worse, and that the oil price had not hit $200/bbl (painting $90/bbl as a win). Understood that this is just talk; but ... (full story)