At the time of this writing, a two-week ceasefire has been on the table. While we are hopeful it can hold, we recognize that there is still importance in understanding different commodity linkages and recognizing certain paths to recovery could be longer than others. Even if the two week ceasefire agreement leads into a medium or longer-run cessation of hostilities, with or without a toll for passage in the Strait of Hormuz, flows of goods through this passage may not quickly return to normal. The conflict has already caused meaningful damage to production and export infrastructure. In several cases, that damage will ... (full story)