Macklem: Expect 'large' CPI figure on Monday, but below 3%

Thank you, Joe, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. My subject, as it often is, is the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy. My last outlook speech was at the end of February, which, I have to say, now feels like it was a year ago. Before I get to everything that has happened since, let me remind you of how things looked back then. The economic data indicated that, in the absence of the temporary effects of tariffs, inflation was running a bit above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) 2 percent goal. The larger question was whether the labor market was substantially weakening, with the unemployment rate fairly steady but little job creation and other signs of a softening labor demand relative to supply. At that point, I was looking for a clearer picture of whether the risks to the FOMC's maximum employment goal called for a cut in our policy rate or if we should hold that rate steady to support continued progress toward 2 percent inflation. After that speech and before the FOMC's March meeting, two critical things occurred. The first was the start of the conflict with Iran, which quickly disrupted energy production and transportation in the Middle East and sent global energy prices soaring. While central bankers rightly tend Fed Governor Waller says swift Middle East resolution could allow rate cuts by year-end. Geopolitical stability key to inflation outlook. FED’S WALLER: COULD CALL FOR HOLDING RATES STEADY IF WAR CREATES HIGH INFLATION, WEAK LABOUR MARKET ... $JPM $BAC Fed Governor Waller expects March headline PCE inflation to hit 3.5% YoY $JPM $BAC Fed Governor Waller says job market shifts complicate current analysis

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