The announced ceasefire looks fragile and keeps Middle East risk elevated. We still assume active conflict ends by mid‑year and oil trends lower into H2 2026, but conviction on the outlook remains low amid persistent geopolitical stress. • Higher oil prices, tighter financial conditions, and rising policy uncertainty push downside risks for 2026 growth. We have cut our 2026 global GDP forecast to 2.7%, below both last month and pre‑conflict expectations. • A tentative ceasefire—that is already defined by repeated rejections of competing demands and violation allegations—keeps the possibility of higher oil prices, ... (full story)