Geopolitical disruption has turned into a near‑term inflation shock. The ongoing Iran conflict has pushed oil prices higher, lifting headline inflation, eroding real income and spending, and delaying the timing of Fed easing in our forecast. • March consumer inflation will break disinflation. Higher energy prices have fed quickly into prices at the pump, ending the two‑year disinflation trend. With oil elevated and no clear resolution in the Middle East, we expect firmer inflation ahead, and forecast headline PCE peaking at a year-ago pace of 3.7% in Q2 and core PCE remaining sticky in a 2.7–3.1% range through ... (full story)