Our reading of events, as they unfold, point to the logic of upholding the Iran war ceasefire, and an extension through to a virtual end to these specific hostilities. The US will want to get hands on Iran's enriched uranium, and if they do, may then hold their nose as Iran assumes a 'monitoring' role over the Strait (even if no more than a covert thing). The market reaction to all of this was predictable; risk-on, and generally relief trades. For the rates market, front ends are under less rate hike pressure, and in the US the rate-cut story for later in 2026 is very much in play (has remained our view). For longer ... (full story)