Members commenced their discussion of financial conditions by considering the impact on markets of the current conflict in the Middle East. Global prices for oil and other forms of energy had risen sharply, short-term inflation expectations had picked up and financial market volatility had increased. The conflict was likely to pose a material adverse supply shock to the global economy, though members agreed that the eventual scale and persistence of the shock was highly uncertain at the time of the meeting. Consistent with that, market prices had continued to be volatile as market participants revised their ... (full story)