In our December 2025 quarterly report, we warned readers to fasten their seatbelts; hopefully you did, because the year started with a major shock. This time it is not US import tariffs, although that issue is far from resolved (see our reports on US tariff restructuring and implications for the EU-US trade deal). Instead, war in the Middle East that has disrupted global energy markets. And Europe is once again confronted with the uncomfortable reality that global geopolitical developments can change the economic outlook overnight. The conflict in the Middle East rapidly created a global shock. After Israel and the ... (full story)