The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak, its largest drawdown since the tariff turmoil last April. {table} While this feels like a big drop, we see a decline of this amount or more during most calendar years. In fact, each of past three years saw bigger declines at some point (-10.3% in 2023, -8.5% in 2024, and -18.9% in 2025). The market would recover from all of these to post big gains (+26.3% in 2023, +25.0% in 2024, and +17.9%). {table} Will we see a similar recovery this year? No one knows. That’s the risk you take as an equity investor, and the primary reason why stocks deliver higher long-term ... (full story)