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What is the gold-crude ratio telling us?
The Middle East war has pulled the gold-crude ratio sharply lower this month, and in order to understand the slump, it is useful to look back at 2020, when the ratio surged to record highs during the pandemic. That episode highlighted how strongly the ratio responds to large, asymmetric shocks in either demand or supply. In 2020, the global economy experienced a severe demand shock. Energy consumption collapsed, sending crude prices sharply lower, while gold rallied as central banks cut rates aggressively and injected liquidity to stabilise growth. The ratio moved higher because oil weakened at the same time as gold ... (full story)