March 2026 US Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

At its meeting ending on 18 March 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. Conflict in the Middle East has caused a significant increase in global energy and other commodity prices, which will affect households’ fuel and utility prices and have indirect effects via businesses’ costs. Prior to this, there had been continued disinflation in domestic prices and wages. CPI inflation will be higher in the near term as a result of the new shock to the economy. Monetary policy cannot influence global energy prices but aims to ensure that the economic adjustment to them occurs in a way that achieves the 2% target sustainably. The MPC is alert to the increased risk of domestic inflationary pressures through second-round effects in wage and price-setting, the risk of which will be greater the longer higher energy prices persist. The MPC is also assessing the implications for inflation of the weakening in economic activity that is likely to result from higher energy costs. *BANK OF ENGLAND HOLDS KEY INTEREST RATE AT 3.75% IN 9-0 VOTE *BOE SAYS ALL MEMBERS 'STAND READY TO ACT' TO CONTAIN INFLATION *BOE SEES INFLATION AT OVER 3% IN FEBRUARY, NEAR 3.5% IN MARCH Bank of England votes unanimously to keep rates on hold as Iran war clouds outlook The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has voted “unanimously” keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 3.75% on Thursday. Before the war in Iran erupted in late February, the BOE had been expected to cut its key interest rate, known as ‘Bank Rate,’ at its March meeting, but the conflict has sent global energy prices soaring, clouding the outlook for inflation and growth. “Conflict in the Middle East has caused a significant increase in global energy and other commodity prices, which will affect households’ fuel and utility prices and have indirect effects via businesses’ costs,” the BOE said in a statement.

The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. It is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term. The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth. It will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices. Its medium-term implications will depend both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy. The Governing Council is well positioned to navigate this uncertainty. Inflation has been at around the 2% target, longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored, and the economy has shown resilience over recent quarters. The incoming information in the period ahead will help the Governing Council assess how the war will affect the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it. The Governing Council is closely monitoring the situation, and its data-dependent approach will help it set monetary policy as appropriate. #ECB LEAVES DEPOSIT FACILITY RATE AT 2.00%; EST. 2.00% - BBG *ECB LEAVES MAIN REFINANCING RATE AT 2.15%; EST. 2.15% *ECB LEAVES MARGINAL LENDING FACILITY AT 2.40%; EST. 2.40% *ECB: WAR POSES UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS, DOWNSIDE GROWTH RISKS *ECB TO DECIDE BASED ON CORE INFLATION,… ECB follows Bank of England with interest rate hold as Iran war intensifies The European Central Bank (ECB) has followed the Bank of England (BoE) and the US Federal Reserve in keeping interest rates on hold. The deposit rate has been left at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending facility at 2.40% amid concerns that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could drive up inflation through higher energy prices. Investors will now focus on ECB president Christine Lagarde’s remarks during the press conference at 1.45pm for signals on the future path of policy. Inflation in the eurozone stood at 1.9% in February, just below the central bank’s 2% target. However, markets have scaled back expectations for rate cuts in 2026, with growing bets on one or two rate rises this year.