The most important economic story right now isn’t inflation. It’s growth — or the lack of it. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP grew just 0.16% in Q4 2025. Annualized, that works out to roughly 0.7% — barely above flat, and less than half the prior estimate of 1.4%. This isn’t an isolated data point. Several other indicators are telling the same story: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index has been trending lower in early 2026, with expectations for future conditions falling faster than present conditions — a pattern that has historically preceded recessions by 6–12 months. ... (full story)