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Gulf smelter cuts tighten aluminium outlook
In our recent report, we highlighted how exposed aluminium markets are to disruptions in the Gulf and warned that an escalating conflict in the Middle East could push prices above $4,000/t under a severe disruption scenario. Even before the conflict, we were already constructive on aluminium prices, supported by China approaching its capacity ceiling, trade dislocations and the imminent shutdown of South 32’s Mozal already tightening supply. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has initiated a phased shutdown of reduction lines 1-3, representing around 19% of its 1.6Mt annual capacity. Meanwhile, Qatalum is currently operating ... (full story)
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- Mar 16, 2026 1:58pm Posted byFundamental Analysis161
