Since war erupted in the Middle East two weeks ago, markets have gone from extreme complacency to all-out panic and back again. As I noted in yesterday’s post, we’re on our way back to all-out panic currently. Growing anxiety over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent to $103, a big risk premium given that this is 42 percent above where oil was before this war began. For the first time, it looks like uncertainty in global oil supply is spilling over into other markets. This has prompted all kinds of apocalyptic talk, when - in reality - key risk gauges look only moderately elevated. Of course that ... (full story)