The Iran war’s impact on oil and gold has defied every expectation. Gold is supposed to surge in wartime. That’s the script — especially when the Iran war is driving oil prices higher and rattling global markets. When the U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, it did — briefly. Prices jumped from $5,296 to $5,423 per ounce in days. Then they dropped more than 6% by March 3, even as bombs were still falling. Two weeks in, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and oil above $100 a barrel, gold is trading in a $5,050–$5,200 range. Sideways. Unimpressed. {chart} So what’s going on? The short answer: a ... (full story)