Since hostilities in the Gulf erupted almost two weeks ago, market sentiment has swung from extreme complacency to all-out panic and back again. We’re now on the way back to all-out panic, as Brent sits right around $100. The prevailing narrative is that Iran can use mines, drones and missiles to shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, giving it the wherewithal to hold global oil markets - and the US - hostage. There’s no denying that’s true, but this narrative ignores Iran’s own massive dependency on oil exports. The late Senator John McCain in 2014 described Russia as a gas station masquerading as a ... (full story)