Rates Spark: The problem children get more cranky

Rates Spark: The problem children get more cranky

From think.ing.com

As feared, the two concerns that we highlighted on Wednesday only intensified through Thursday – the two problem children of higher US break-even inflation rates and higher US swap spreads. First, the 2yr breakeven is now back up to 3.2%. Given that this is an average number over the next two years, it impliedly suggests that US inflation is heading to 3.5%, at least. Second, the 10yr swap spread is knocking on the door of 50bp. This rot is liable to continue for as long as the war angst remains elevated. Perhaps the anomalous piece here is the tendency for real yields to rise. Short-dated real yields did fall on ... (full story)

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