This presidency - to state the obvious - isn’t like anything we’ve seen before. Foreign policy adventures come and go, seemingly with little rhyme or reason, not to mention things like the IEEPA tariffs, which were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court. There is however one constant, which is that markets - when they get too crazy - get Trump to back down. This is what happened with sky-high tariffs on China in April 2025 and it looks like this is what’s happening again now on Iran. Yesterday’s post listed three catalysts that might cause oil prices to fall and Brent did indeed tumble. In the event, the reasons I gave ... (full story)