The attack on Iran was not quite a surprise, but actually was. Now President Trump has surprised us again, but this time in the other direction, signalling an imminent pull-back. If true that a pause or exit (even if short term) is accurate, it would certainly be politically expedient. It's hardly a war that has had widespread support. Given that, a quick war is better for the Trump administration than a protracted one. Markets have clearly done some talking here, via the higher oil price, elevated volatility, no lower yield dividend, and a risk-off tone that had threatened to get much worse. The impact reaction has ... (full story)