Escalating geopolitical risks could have far-reaching implications for global commodity markets beyond oil and gas, with aluminium particularly exposed given the concentration of export-oriented smelting capacity in the Gulf and the reliance on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Key takeaways: • Rising tensions in the Middle East have introduced fresh upside risks to aluminium markets, which were already expected to remain in deficit this year, prompting us to revise our aluminium price forecasts higher. • While oil and LNG markets are most directly exposed to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, aluminium ... (full story)