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The Slow Climb: How Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025

From federalreserve.gov

The speed and extent to which tariffs built pressure on consumer prices in 2025 remains an ongoing and important debate. This note examines tariff-related retail price changes using a detailed item-level retail spending dataset combined with information on the countries where products are produced. We find that (1) price pressures developed gradually in 2025 rather than showing up as a one-time price spike, (2) tariff effects have been greatest for goods imported from China with 8.5% year-over-year price increase by December 2025, (3) tariff pass-through to consumers between April 2025 and December 2025 has been at ... (full story)

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  • Category: Fundamental Analysis